Life will never be the same again after ongoing corona crisis over
There have been some events in recent history that have brought about
major changes in human life. World War II is an event from the history of the
last 60 or 70 years, which has brought about major changes across the world.
The 9/11 attacks in the United States caused changes in the civil aviation
sector. Similarly, the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai (India) brought about major
changes.
The ongoing corona crisis will also turn out to be a problem that will
bring about major, large-scale and long-term changes in human life as we know
it today. In fact, life will never be the same ever again once the corona
pandemic ends. The pandemic will not only have short-term and long-term effects
on our lives, but will also have an impact at the micro level and at the macro
level. Indeed, pandemic will force the entre human race to take a real close
look at its very way of life and to change that way of life forever.
The world may do what it wants to, but for India, the process of lifting
the present lockdown ought to be the first stage of planning to bring about
those changes. The lockdown has been announced for three weeks, but it cannot
continue for an indefinite period of time. It is clear that the lockdown will
have serious effect on all sectors of the economy, including industry, trade,
communication and transport. Hence, any extension in the lockdown period will
cause immense economic loss, and it will become extremely difficult, almost
impossible, to make it up. This economic loss will have serious social
repercussions also. Therefore, it is imperative that we strike the golden mean
between total lockdown on the one hand, and economic and social interest on the
other.
How to achieve the golden mean? First of all, the lockdown will have to
be lifted in stages. As of now, essential services, like shops of medicines,
vegetables and other essential commodities, dispensaries and hospitals have
been exempted from the lockdown. So in the first stage of lifting the lockdown,
this exemption will have to be extended to services that are not “essential,”
but are important and would cause disruption in normal life if not available
for a prolonged period. For example, shops that sell electrical goods, hardware
goods, spectacles, tyre-tubes, artisans who provide minor repairs and
maintenance service, establishments like salons, tailors, restaurants/mess, and
transport and allied services (like petrol pumps, lubricant shops, etc.). These
will need to be given permission to operate, subject to rules of social
distancing. Banks are already operating, and permission will have to be given
to establishments in the finance, trade, commerce, information technology and
telecommunication sectors to operate. All these establishments should be
permitted to operate with 50 per cent work force. Similarly, public transport
will have to be resumed, else the roads would get jammed with private vehicles.
Trains and flights will have to be allowed to operate at 50 per cent capacity
as far as possible. It would be impossible to operate public transportation
like the local trains in Mumbai at 50 per cent capacity. In such cases, they
should be allowed to operate by following the rules of social distancing as far
as possible. Since all establishments and offices will not be operating, and
those operating would be doing so at 50 per cent of the employee strength, it can
be reasonably expected that public transport would not get crowded too much.
In the second stage of lifting the lockdown, establishments that are not
essential but are important should be given permission to open. These should
include shops that sell cloth, readymade clothes, cosmetics, books, stationery,
footwear, photocopying, net café, furniture, mattresses and electronic/consumer
durable goods, establishments like photo studios, beauty parlours, gymnasia,
coffee shops, hotels/guest houses/rest houses and bakeries, and establishments
from sectors other than the banking, finance, trade, commerce, information
technology and telecommunication sectors. However, they can operate at 50 per
cent employee strength, and subject to the rules of social distancing. Courts
and all government offices should be included in the second stage.
In the third stage of lifting the lockdown, all establishments and
offices other than educational institutions should be allowed to open, provided
they operate at 50 per cent employee strength and subject to the rules of
social distancing.
In the fourth stage, permission should be granted to operate public
transport at full capacity. However, offices and establishments should be
allowed to operate at 50 per cent employee strength and under rules of social
distancing.
At each stage, the decisions will have to be made after reviewing the
situation, and to strike a balance between the spread of corona and its control
on the one hand, and the socio-economic situation on the other. Only if
everything goes smoothly should all offices and establishments, except
educational institutions, be allowed to operate at full strength. Educational
institutions should be allowed to open only after the situation comes under
complete control, and then again in stages, with higher education institutions
opening first, followed by high schools and higher secondary schools in the
second, and all other schools last.
If we don’t do this, then there is a very real risk that there will be a
breakdown in the economy, which would not only cause a severe problem of
unemployment, but could also result in the deterioration of law and order. In
fact, we can safely say that there is already a clear indication of the
possibility of the law and order situation deteriorating – there have been
three instances in the last three days of attacks by violators of the lockdown
on policemen trying to enforce the lockdown. These were clearly not sudden,
which is a serious aspect of the current situation. It clearly shows that the
people will oppose any forced implementation of the lockdown; definitely beyond
a certain limit. The opposition will erupt if the problem of earning a
livelihood assumes serious proportions amid the lockdown. The opposition could
manifest itself in a violent manner, and within no time, such outbursts could
grow from isolated incidents into an organized agitation, if not a rebellion.
People will have to be allowed to resume their means of livelihood if violence
is to be avoided, and for this to happen, it is imperative that the lockdown be
lifted in stages.
However, it is clear that lifting the lockdown is but a short-term
measure. We will have to take precautions till a definite and reliable
treatment for corona is found, and for this, our planning will have to be
focused on reducing the crowds on the roads and on public transport vehicles.
The country will have to look at some long-term remedies for this, and these
remedies will have to be sought beyond the established and conventional systems
of work. It means that we will now have to devise and implement unconventional
modes of working.
The existing and conventional mode of working is for thousands or lakhs
of workers leaving home at the same time, commute to their places of work that
are usually concentrated in the same central area or multiple clusters, and
return home in the evening. This system has been followed for ages. This will
have to change. The offices and establishments in a certain area should have
staggered working hours, with timings being staggered by 15 or 30 minutes. This
will reduce the crowd of commuters. The strain on public transport systems will
decrease to a great extent if the peak-hour crowd decreases by even 7 to 10 per
cent.
In fact, going beyond this, it is now high time that we abandon the
age-old system of having the same weekly off day for all offices and
establishments. The system of staggered weekly off days must be introduced.
Establishments like newspaper offices, news channels, and cement and chemical
plants already followed the system of staggered weekly off days. Why can’t it
be implemented in other establishments as well? The crowd on the roads could
decrease by 12 to 15 per cent if this is done. We have abandoned many old
practices in the 21st century. In the present age, doesn’t the system of the
same weekly off day for all workers seem outdated and obsolete? Indeed, in
today’s modern age, shouldn’t all products and services be available all seven
days of the week, and shouldn’t all offices, institutions and establishments
remain open all seven days of the week? In this age of the internet, when we
are connected to each other 24x7, places of work should also work 7 days a week
(if not 24 hours a day). It would not only be convenient, but would also be
beneficial to all.
However, it is obvious that these are all temporary measures. Man will
have to think seriously about his existing way of life, and will have to make
micro-level as well as macro-level planning to ensure that the world never ever
comes under a threat from corona or other similar devastating pandemic.
One major step that we could take at the micro level is the
decentralization of trade, commercial, industrial and administrative
establishments and institutions. Right now, all major offices and
establishments are concentrated in one or more big cities. This results in
employment opportunities in these big cities, leading to large-scale migration
towards these cities. Such migration not only puts a strain on the civic
amenities in the big cities, but also causes excessive population density.
Densely populated areas are ticking public health time bombs by themselves, as
the corona crisis has shown. It is, therefore, necessary to reduce the
crowding. Can’t we shift big offices from cities like Mumbai and Pune to smaller
cities? To cite the example of Mumbai, the head offices of organizations like MahaGenCo,
MahaTransCo and MahaDiscom should be shifted to other towns. There are numerous
other organizations whose head offices can be shifted from Mumbai to other
places.
In fact, why the insistence on having the capital of Maharashtra in
Mumbai? The capital of a state should ideally be at the approximate
geographical centre of that state, and so the capital of Maharashtra must be
shifted to such a location.
This idea may sound outlandish right now, but there is no doubt that it
would become imperative in the times to come. Otherwise, it would become
impossible to check the massive crowds in the big cities, to reduce them and to
control them. And as long as such crowds continue to choke the cities, the
possibility of disasters like corona happening can never be ruled out.
However, these are all micro-level remedies and planning. It is now high
time that man carried out a thorough and deep introspection. Man must take a long,
real, hard look at the lifestyle that he has adopted, and make some changes
through macro-level planning.
It is now time for us to rethink the existing capitalist, imperialistic,
consumerist and materialistic lifestyle that puts an unbearable strain on the
environment and on natural resources. In his mad quest for so-called
development in the 250 years since the industrial revolution began, man has
drifted far from nature. This must stop. We must adopt a lifestyle that would
cause the least damage to nature.
What, in fact, is development? What are the criteria? Who decided those
criteria? And who gave the authority to decide those criteria to whoever
decided them in the first place? How can the same criteria be applicable in all
the different and diverse parts of the world? Why should everyone accept those
criteria decided by a so-called expert who is either an American or a British?
Shouldn’t they be different for different times and places?
It is not necessary that something that succeeded at one place would
succeed everywhere else. The “vadaa-paav” is an excellent example of this. The
“vadaa-paav” (a typical Indian snack) accounts for a turnover of literally
billions of rupees every day in Mumbai; it is available at every nook and
corner. Yet, it is not easily available in cities like Nagpur, Akola or Pune.
Why? It is so because the way of life in Mumbai is totally different from that
in Nagpur, Akola, Amravati or Pune. The “vadaa-paav” is a cheap and quick
snack, perfect for resident of Mumbai hard-pressed for time. However, people
have time on hand in cities like Nagpur and Pune, and hence, the “vadaa-paav”
does not sell in these cities. People eat the snack only when they want to eat
something different. By contrast, a resident of Mumbai eats it because he has
few options. It is a necessity.
Another example. The afternoon paper “Mid-Day” had a massive circulation
in Mumbai at one time. Encouraged by the success in Mumbai, the publishers
launched editions in Pune and Delhi. However, the Pune edition closed down
within a year, and the Delhi edition in two years. Why? It was so because
Mid-Day fulfilled a very typical need of the residents of Mumbai, which was a
little recreation on the long commute home after work. The typical Mumbaikar
did not mind spending a few bucks for this every day. By contrast, commuting
was mostly by personal vehicles in Pune and Delhi at the time, and even the
commute by public transport was short. Therefore, the need for recreation on a
long commute did not exist at all, and that is the exact reason why Mid-Day
failed in those cities. (Pune and Delhi have grown since and commutes have
become longer, but the need for recreation is being fulfilled by mobile
internet now. Mid-Day is struggling to stay afloat in Mumbai.)
The examples of the “vadaa-paav” and the Mid-Day newspaper is only to
drive home the point that there cannot be a single model of development for the
entire world. This very concept of “one size fits all” is wrong at the
fundamental level. To borrow a term from computing, a “copy-paste” job does not
work as far as development is concerned.
The present model is to carry out large-scale development in a city.
This leads to an increase in the population. The increase in population puts a
strain on the civic infrastructure there. The administration then creates more
infrastructure by spending thousands of crores of rupees. The improvement in
infrastructure attracts more people to these cities. This, in turn, puts
further strain on the infrastructure. More money is then spent on
infrastructure. This causes the population to increase. This ultimately causes
a vicious circle of crowds, strain, expenditure and infrastructure. This is
unending. We will not be able to break this vicious cycle unless we change our
perspective and concept of development.
The world, and especially India, will have to abandon this
consumption-oriented and materialistic model of development. The practice of
creating civic amenities in certain cities and ignore other towns must stop.
Henceforth, there must be even distribution of large industries, large
projects, and large offices and organizations across the country and across
states. This will happen only with proper planning and implementation. It is
true that certain activities can be carried out at certain places only; for
example, ports can operate only at the coasts. However, such planning can
definitely be done for establishments in other sectors of the economy. A
detailed discussion on such macro-level planning is beyond the scope of this
article, and only a brief idea of what should be the future approach to
development has been given.
Some years ago, the then chief minister of Maharashtra made a statement
that it was important to manage the urbanization in the country. Our
politicians could not have been more off the mark. The time to manage
urbanization is long gone and past. It is now time to arrest urbanization, and,
ultimately, to reverse it. The day our politicians and administrators
understand this will be the day we have a welfare State in the true sense.
